ABTECT Part 2 Likely Removes Safety Overhang; NDA in UC on Track for 4Q26; Raising PT to $175.

研报英文原文证据摘录

ABTECT Part 2 Likely Removes Safety Overhang; NDA in UC on Track for 4Q26; Raising PT to $175.

Investment Thesis

Inflammatory bowel disease remains without an active, safe, and easy-to-prescribe oral treatment option, and we see ABVX’s

obefazimod as well-positioned to serve this large unmet need. All oral therapies before obefazimod have fallen short either on

efficacy, safety, or both, leaving a low bar for obefazimod to succeed commercially. Phase 3 data of obefazimod in UC show durable

efficacy that contends with JAK inhibitors yet looks significantly more straightforward to prescribe. We also think obefazimod's

novel mechanism is well-suited to be studied in combination regimens, which we see having growing importance going forward.

The results from VEGA were an early glimpse of how powerful combination regimens in UC can be and were further supported

by Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ, Not Rated) DUET-UC/CD data, reinforcing the value of combination strategies in IBD. As a safe oralBIOTECHNOLOGY treatment option, obefazimod looks uniquely well-suited to emerge as a 1L therapy and a backbone for combination regimens. We

see a large disconnect between where ABVX currently trades and obefazimod’s expected opportunity in IBD, leaving us positive

ahead of next catalysts.

EQUITY Upcoming Catalysts Price Performance

■ Obefazimod NDA filing - 4Q26 $160

■ Phase 2b CD induction data (ENHANCE-CD) - mid-2027 $140

$120

$100

$80RESEARCH $60

Base Case Assumptions: $175 Price Target $40

$20

■ Obefazimod in UC: 95% probability of success, launch in 2028, 105k pts on Tx at $0

peak in the US Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 ■ Obefazimod in CD: 85% probability of success, launch in 2029, 122k pts on Tx at