Market Pulse

研报英文原文证据摘录

Market Pulse

Chart 1 - US, Canada, and Mexico: Decision tree for Renewal or Termination of the USMCA

One reason that the CAD did poorly even in the period well before June and July is that the failure to extend the USMCA

was being sniffed out by traders by May. That was inferred by the comments emanating from the US administration in late Q1

and early Q2, which were largely disdainful of the USMCA and its extension. And when Canada gave formal written notice on June

1 that it wanted the agreement renewed, US President Donald Trump signaled the other way. He said: “I’m not looking to renew

it”, and repeated that the US does not need anything from Canada and Mexico. After that, in Canada, the Globe and Mail reported

that officials from all three countries already viewed the annual-review scenario as much more likely than an outright extension.

If the MXN fared better than the CAD, however, it was because the US seemed more positively disposed toward an

arrangement with Mexico. The USTR had already said in late May that the US and Mexico would hold a series of bilateral rounds

tied to the joint review: May 28-29 in Mexico City on economic security and rules of origin for key industrial goods, June 16-17 in

Washington adding agriculture and level-playing-field issues, and a third round in Mexico City the week of July 20. Those rounds

built on technical discussions Greer and Mexico Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard had launched in mid-March, which were

reported to be going better than the informal discussions the US was having with Canada. We've put the events leading up to

the non-renewal, on July 1, in Figure 2, along with tariff-related news.

Chart 2 - US, Canada, and mexico: Timeline of Events Pertaining to USMCA Review

Source: Various Sources