New Zealand Economic Comment "RBNZ consensus OCR hike to 2.50% in July, as..."

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New Zealand Economic Comment "RBNZ consensus OCR hike to 2.50% in July, as..."

Global Research

8 July 2026ab

New Zealand Economic Comment Economics

New ZealandRBNZ consensus OCR hike to 2.50% in July, as

expected. UBSe still +25bp in Sep & 3% terminal Stephen Wu

Economist

stephen.wu@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 2283

George Tharenou

The RBNZ increased the OCR by 25bps to 2.50% in July, as expected. The Economist

decision was consensus, and optionality for the timing of (but not the need george.tharenou@ubs.com

for) future OCR increases was retained, as UBS had flagged. +61-2-9324 3520

UBS continue to expect the RBNZ to further withdraw monetary stimulus by Izzy Lowe

hiking again by 25bps in September. We maintain our terminal rate of 3% by Associate Economist

izzy.lowe@ubs.com

year-end. We see risks to our view of terminal as broadly balanced.

+61-2-9324 2651

RBNZ's July MPS meeting increased the OCR to 2.50%, as expected Tatiana Bodrova

Associate Economist

The RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by tatiana.bodrova@ubs.com

25bps to 2.50% at its Jul-26 meeting. On the day, the decision to hike by 25bps was +61-29-324 2645

expected by UBS and most market economists (UBSe: +25bps; consensus: +25bps, with

17 of 23 forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg expecting a hike). Markets similarly priced

in a ~80% chance of a hike (mkt: ~20bps).

OCR decision was reached by consensus, as UBS expected

The decision to raise the OCR in July was reached by consensus. UBS held a non-

consensus view that the MPC vote would shift towards unanimous, after the split 3-3

vote in May (see our preview here and our analysis of MPC votes here). The MPC noted

the 25bp increase in July was 'consistent with the mandate of ensuring low and stable

inflation'.