Emaar Properties PJSC "Q2 26 preview: No sweetener needed, confidence..."

研报英文原文证据摘录

Emaar Properties PJSC "Q2 26 preview: No sweetener needed, confidence..."

12/27E 2.06 2.06 -0 2.23

remains limited. Geopolitical uncertainty has weighed on sentiment and transaction

activity, yet discussions with local experts have remained more constructive than market Charles Boissier, CFA

pricing suggests. Company-disclosed metrics and high frequency recovery indicators Analyst

point to continued resilience, while our data suggest June volumes recovered after a charles.boissier@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 4415softer May. Our deduction is that current market data are more consistent with deferred

purchasing decisions than a structural weakening of Dubai residential demand. Jon Peace

Analyst

Why now jon.peace@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0638

We believe Q2 26 results will provide a more relevant read-through on the current

operating environment than Q1 26, which largely reflected market conditions prior to Nadir Rahman

Analystthe recent increase in uncertainty. Emaar entered the period with a record backlog and

nadir.rahman@ubs.com

industry-leading development margins, supported by 91% presale levels and limited +44-20-7567 1750

customer defaults. While management had not launched new projects since March,

signalling caution on near-term absorption, it has since announced plans to unveil a

AED200bn master-planned development in Dubai, representing one of the largest

urban districts ever conceived by the company.

Valuation: trades at a 16.1% yield to 2026 adjusted EPS

Our PT is economic-profit based and implies an 11.4% yield (to that same EPS).

Highlights (Dhm) 12/22 12/23 12/24 12/25E 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E

Net rental income 12,312 16,109 20,381 27,227 23,238 29,200 35,579 30,827

EBITDA (UBS) 10,022 16,913 19,159 24,601 21,126 25,186 29,926 26,020