SIG (1K) | Hold | Q2 preview: tougher quarter, H2 the story

研报英文原文证据摘录

SIG (1K) | Hold | Q2 preview: tougher quarter, H2 the story

#EarningsPreview #TPchange

Release date: 10 July 2026

Company research

ESG profile HoldSIG

Switzerland | Forestry, paper & packaging MCap: CHF5.1bn

Target Price: CHF14.00 (13.00) Change in TP: 7.7 % Bloomberg: SIGN SW Reuters: SIGNC.S

Current Price: CHF13.34 Change in Sales: none 26E/-0.1% 27E Free float 73%

Up/downside: 4.9% Change in Adj EBIT: -0.5% 26E/-0.4% 27E Avg. daily volume (CHFm) 19.8

YTD abs performance 17.6% Market data: 09 July 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: -0.7% 26E/1.6% 27E

52-week high/low (CHF) 15.22/7.83

Q2 preview: tougher quarter, H2 the story Price performance

Why this report?

Ahead of H1/Q2 results due 28 July, we fine-tune estimates and account for

stronger cash conversion. This sees us find a higher fair value, although we

leave earnings estimates about unchanged. After a solid Q1, Q2 was pre-

flagged as more challenging due to Middle East cost pressures, and it is also

running against tougher YOY comparables. We expect FY 2026 guidance (0–2%

revenue growth, adjusted EBIT margin 15.7%–16.2%) to be confirmed. H2 is

expected to deliver meaningfully stronger margins and cash flow due to

seasonality and the full ramp-up of restructuring savings. We lift our TP and

see the stock as a shelter with catalysts (27 October CMD, new CEO with new

ideas, activist investor). Yet, the incremental upside seems more limited here.

Key findings FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

Middle East cost pressure will likely dominate the Q2 investor concerns. The Strait Sales 3,258 3,364 3,482

of Hormuz closure drove up oil/gas, energy, freight, and logistics costs. EBITDA adj. 790 826 866

Management said Q1 financial impact was limited, but costs were rising and EBIT adj. 509 531 561

Net profit adj.