CRWV & NBIS - Into the Neoclouds Ahead of 2Q26 Earnings

研报英文原文证据摘录

CRWV & NBIS - Into the Neoclouds Ahead of 2Q26 Earnings

Enterprise Software

Neoclouds - Market Weight

CRWV & NBIS - Into the Neoclouds Ahead of 2Q26 July 6, 2026

Earnings

The Wolfe Byte

Ahead of 2Q results, we have increased confidence in CRWV's capacity and growth, while becoming more cautious

on NBIS's capacity ramp. We lower NBIS FY26 revenue to $3B, the low end of guidance, on greater caution around

Vineland timing. Reiterate CRWV OP and NBIS PP.

TLDR: We update our CRWV and NBIS estimates ahead of 2Q earnings following our PQ calls with IR, note key

takeaways on CRWV and NBIS demand and capacity timing, and share pictures of NBIS's 1.2 GW Independence,

Missouri site after being on the ground there last weekend. We continue to view the neoclouds positively despite recent

underperformance tied to potential competition and lower growth contribution from META, which we think is a misread

and not a negative demand signal (note linked here).

CRWV. We reflect no changes to prior operating income or revenue estimates, but increase FY26 CapEx slightly above

the high end of guidance, driven by a higher 3Q mix (+$2B), and reflecting increased investments for capacity and

potential component price pressure. With CRWV expecting 2Q to be the largest quarter for active power added

in FY26, and 3Q a close second, we have increased confidence in capacity going live as scheduled. We think the

$125-130B 2Q backlog bogey some investors communicated was set too high by an incorrect estimate methodology

applied to disclosures in recent debt offerings, and go through why we think those disclosures support ~$110-$115B

of 2Q backlog. We remain confident in CRWV exiting FY26 with backlog >$135B, with planned capacity supporting