COP pre-earnings update: MtM trims EPS, but underlines linear leverage to windfall oil prices.

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COP pre-earnings update: MtM trims EPS, but underlines linear leverage to windfall oil prices.

Global Majors

Global Majors - Market Overweight

CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) July 6, 2026

COP pre-earnings update: MtM trims EPS, but underlines Rating:

linear leverage to windfall oil prices. Outperform

Price:

$103.58

The Wolfe Byte Price Target:

We continue to view COP as 'more major than E&P' with prospective FcF expansion $137

% Upside:& longevity that can support sector leading div. growth. Pre-earnings call trims 32.3%

EPS on weak US gas but underlines linear exposure to windfall oil prices.

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Pre-earnings call trims EPS on weak US gas prices. Our updated EPS estimate Company Information

is $2.83/sh vs $3.29/sh prior from our raw commodity update. Current consensus 52-Week Range $86 - $134

is $2.95/sh. Our pre-quarter catch-up suggests a straightforward operating quarter Market Cap. (MM) $126,191

with production tracking the midpoint of guidance at ~2.2 Mboe/d. Higher physical oil Enterprise Value (MM) $147,750 Shares Out. (MM) 1,218.3

prices are expected to lift oil realizations back above 100% of benchmarks; however Avg. Value Traded (MM) $723.04

the main delta is weak L48 natural gas realizations - specifically Waha noting that Adj. Debt to Cap 6.6%

SI% of Float 2.0%

COP sells ~80% of its Permian gas locally. Less impactful is modestly higher energy FCF Yield 0.1%

costs expected to reverse in subsequent quarters. Cashflow of ~$6.7bn more than EV/ EBITDA 4.6x

covers $3.2bn of capex & $1bn of dividends. Overall, we see COP's strongest quarter Price Performance

since 2022 underlining linear portfolio leverage to oil prices, helped by the lowest YTD LTM

portfolio PSC exposure of 'major' oil peers, a relationship we expect to be sustained COP 14% 19%