SCG Packaging PCL: Rich valuation

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SCG Packaging PCL: Rich valuation

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SCG Packaging PCL

Rich valuation

Maintain Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 18.90 THB | Price: 29.25 THB

2Q26 result preview 08 July 2026

We expect SCGP to deliver strong 2Q26 results with core NPAT expected to come in at Equity

Bt1.9bn (+23% QoQ and +90% YoY). Core 1H26 NPAT should stand at Bt3.5bn. The

turnaround of Fajar, which accounts for 15% of SCGP's revenue, should be the key Narumon Ekasamut ^^^ Research Analyst

catalyst along with packaging paper's margin improvement. Kiatnakin Phatra Securities

+66 2 305 9086

Higher margin on stronger sales narumon.ekas@kkpfg.com Komsun Suksumrun ^^^

Packaging paper volume should grow 7% QoQ given the absence of holidays in 1Q26 Research Analyst

while average packaging paper prices should be up slightly by 1% QoQ. This should drive Kiatnakinkomsun.suks@kkpfg.comPhatra Securities

an increase of 8% in packaging paper revenue (47% of Integrated packaging business

revenue). Fajar should turn from a loss of Bt40mn in 1Q26 to net profit in 2Q26. We

expect gross margin to improve from 1Q26’s 21.0% to 21.3% in 2Q26 which will be in

Stock Dataalignment with an EBITDA margin increase (from 15.6% to 16.3%). Higher price

adjustments, particularly at Fajar, should outweigh recycled paper costs. Price 29.25 THB

Price Objective 18.90 THB

3Q26 outlook Date Established 28-Jan-2026

Sales volume is expected to be sequentially flat as weak seasonal factors should be Investment Opinion B-3-7

offset by higher sales towards the end of the quarter from stimulus policy by the 52-Week Range 14.90 THB-29.50 THB

government. Pricing should also be flat QoQ. However, gross margin should be squeezed Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) 3,771 USD / 4,292.9

from the lag impact of high raw material inventory costs.