Siltronic (1K) | Hold (vs Buy) | Significant excitement is being priced in

研报英文原文证据摘录

Siltronic (1K) | Hold (vs Buy) | Significant excitement is being priced in

we believe the wafer industry is better EPS adj. and ful. dil. -6.69 -4.25 -1.66

Consensus EPS -7.5 -4.8 -1.6

prepared for the uptick, as we have seen significant investments into greenfield Net dividend 0.00 0.00 0.00

capacities, awaiting to be ramped up. Coupled with c.70% of 300mm wafer

FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E capacities being covered by long-term agreements (with agreed prices), we see P/E adj and ful. dil. nm nm nm

more limited room to see a pricing-driving upward spiral to emerge. EV/EBITDA 15.0 10.8 7.8

At current valuation levels, we believe the market is fairly reflecting the recovery EV/EBIT nm nm nm

FCF yield -2.4% -1.5% 6.3% path, and consequently, we take a breather after the great share price run. Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Deconstructing the forecasts ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA 3.5 2.6 1.7

We reworked our Siltronic model to reflect recently improved industry dynamics, Gearing 50.5% 57.9% 49.7%

ROIC -4.6% -2.8% -0.4%

calling for a more pronounced recovery path in 2027/28, which is mainly driven by EV/IC 1.1 1.2 1.2

improving volume trends rather than significant price increases in the near-term.

With a majority of top-line growth being driven by volumes, we are expecting a

more limited EBITDA margin expansion than the consensus, though we must

admit the core market focus should stay on top-line dynamics for now.

Valuation: taking a breather after a great run - down to Hold

Our new target price implies a c.8x EV/EBITDA multiple on FY-28 EBITDA, looking

at the share price from a mid-term perspective, and applying a premium to the

over-the-cycle multiple of c.6.5x.

A blue-sky scenario would demand flawless execution and additional tailwinds Florian Treisch