US Biotechnology: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: MRNA, TGTX, CRSP, AGIO, NVAX, & HCM

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US Biotechnology: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: MRNA, TGTX, CRSP, AGIO, NVAX, & HCM

expansion, and whether 2026 remains the last heavy investment year for Casgevy. Our

view remains constructive with 2H26 shaping up to be busy with data catalysts (see our

1Q26 takeaways).

2H pipeline readouts could drive the next leg

CTX310 is the most important in vivo editing update expected 2H26 (LBA title recently

posted at ESC 2026), with additional updates expected across CTX611 and zugo-cel in

autoimmune disease and B-cell malignancies. We will also watch whether CRSP keeps

timelines for CTX340 in refractory HTN, CTX460 in AATD, and CTX321 in Lp(a), since

breadth of the in vivo liver platform is central to the forward story. Zugo-cel remains a

key debate, with early autoimmune data encouraging and the LBCL malignancy update

important for confidence in allogeneic CAR-T durability. Longer term, the emerging in

vivo CAR-T work is too early for meaningful model credit but could become strategically

important if redosable or integrating approaches reduce the cost and complexity of cell

therapy. We moderately raise our 2Q revenue estimates for Casgevy given increasing

rate of cell collections/transfusions while trimming our outer-year expectations on

anticipated increased competition (BEAM, others). Maintain Buy rating and $83 PO.

AGIO: Launch metrics need to keep building to momentum

Company-compiled consensus at $26.9M looks achievable off 1Q worldwide mitapivat

revenue of $20.7M, though conversion from prescriptions to paid revenue remains a key

question given patient assistance and reimbursement noise early in launch. We think

350-400 cumulative prescriptions would show healthy momentum, with meaningfully