12 Events In H2:26 That Could Change Practice, Alter Companies, Move Stocks

研报英文原文证据摘录

12 Events In H2:26 That Could Change Practice, Alter Companies, Move Stocks

TD Cowen

Global Research July 7, 2026

bleeding risk would increase duration of therapy since patients often stop DOAC after a

major or non-major bleeding event.

■Reasons for caution: Non-inferior efficacy with better safety and lower bleeding risk versus

Eliquis represents a high bar for milvexian to cross. An expected lower bleeding rate in

the trial overall could make achieving a big difference challenging. Enabling combination

with antiplatelet therapy in secondary stroke prevention would offer a path to a market

not already occupied by Eliquis, but a smaller one than AF, and one where Bayer plans to

compete.

2) Ziltivekimab (ZEUS): Phase III Readout (NVO) - The first pivotal readout for anti-IL-6

ziltivekimab in a cardiovascular outcomes trial is expected in Q3 from Phase III ZEUS. This

would establish IL-6 as a mechanism with significant potential, inflammation as a real target

for intervening in cardiovascular disease, and NVO as the leader in a new category. NVS and

LLY also have anti-IL-6 agents in late-stage development for cardiovascular disease. Roche

has an anti-IL-6 agent approved for different uses and has hinted it may pursue cardiovascular

disease. We estimate ziltivekimab sales of DKK 10B in 2032.

■Reasons for optimism: Most of our KOLs across cardiovascular specialties believe ZEUS

will work. The best evidence for the IL-6 hypothesis comes from the CANTOS trial of anti-

IL-1beta canakinumab. That study posted positive data, but not sufficient for approval given

fatal infection risk (0.31 events per 100 person-years vs. 0.18 for placebo). In the trial, IL-6

suppression correlated strongly with cardiovascular risk reduction independent of lipid

status.