Predicting A Robust Future For Prediction Markets - Ahead Of The Curve

研报英文原文证据摘录

Predicting A Robust Future For Prediction Markets - Ahead Of The Curve

Global Research COLLABORATIVE REPORT

July 7, 2026

Collaborative Report Predicting A Robust Future For Prediction

Markets - Ahead Of The Curve

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC - WASHINGTON THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

RESEARCH GROUP - USA

We expect prediction markets to continue to grow as the industry first embraces sportingMACRO POLICY

events before expanding into stock and other financial-related event contracts. To us, the

Jaret Seiberg regulatory environment is favorable and likely to survive the next presidential election though

202 868 5313

there is some litigation risk. There are tailwinds for DraftKings, exchanges, MRX & select

jaret.seiberg@tdsecurities.com

brokers.

Paul Gallant

202 868 5303 Our Thesis - Jaret Seiberg

paul.gallant@tdsecurities.com

■We believe prediction markets are built to survive the next presidential election and to

withstand legal scrutiny while appealing to retail investors who are used to taking risk andTD SECURITIES (USA) LLC

who grew up with sports betting.EQUITY RESEARCH

Lance Vitanza, CFA ■The opportunity is significant. Two leading players -- Polymarket and Kalshi -- processed $24

646 616 3053 billion in trading volume, which is a 10-fold increase from the prior year. Volume may hit $1

lance.vitanza@tdsecurities.com trillion by 2030.

Bill Katz ■Sports bets are driving prediction market growth today with 40% of men in the United

212 468 7802 States between the ages of 18 and 34 having entered into an event contract.

bill.katz@tdsecurities.com

■Financial contracts, however, are likely the driver of long-term growth as prediction markets

Billy Young, CFA

may offer an alternative way to hedge or amplify a position.

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