OPEC/Iran Update: Hazy Horizon

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OPEC/Iran Update: Hazy Horizon

July 5, 2026 RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Helima Croft

OPEC/Iran Update: Hazy Horizon Head of Global Commodity

Strategy and MENA Research

OPEC+ Opts for Modest Increase Against a Backdrop of Continued Uncertainty (212) 618-7798

helima.croft@rbccm.comRESEARCH The seven OPEC+ producers making voluntary cuts met today and announced a 188 kb/d increase

against a backdrop of continued uncertainty about the trajectory of Hormuz transits as well as Christopher Louney

the diplomatic path to converting the MoU to a final deal by mid-August. Commodity Strategist

(212) 437-1925

• We think the OPEC leadership will exercise diligence in determining the pace of production christopher.louney@rbccm.com

increases once the Hormuz evacuation phase concludes. Certainly, countries that have been

impacted by the war are in a build-back mode when it comes to production and exports. John Soughan

Assistant Vice PresidentMENA However, we think there is minimal appetite for a supply-driven price washout, especially (212) 428-5491

given the financial burden of repairing infrastructure damage as well as additional security john.soughan@rbccm.com

priorities, such as safeguarding desalination facilities. Multiple UAE officials have indicated

that the country will continue to consult with OPEC member states about market conditions Allison Enck

Assistant Vice President

and will be very judicious about any future production increases beyond the stated 5 mb/d (646) 618-6547AND target. allison.enck@rbccm.com

• Iraqi officials have issued somewhat contradictory statements, with some calling for greater Victoria Silva

production autonomy, which was interpreted as a veiled threat to leave the producer group. Senior Associate