European Steel Q2’26 into the print: turn constructive as safeguards take effect. Double upgrade Voestalpine & Salzgitter to OW, upgrade ArcelorMittal to Neutral

研报英文原文证据摘录

European Steel Q2’26 into the print: turn constructive as safeguards take effect. Double upgrade Voestalpine & Salzgitter to OW, upgrade ArcelorMittal to Neutral

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

10 July 2026

European Steel

Q2’26 into the print: turn constructive as safeguards

take effect. Double upgrade Voestalpine & Salzgitter to

OW, upgrade ArcelorMittal to Neutral

On 9 March we double downgraded our European Steel outlook to negative, European Metals, Mining & Steel

ACforecasting that events in the Middle East could trigger demand destruction and Dominic O'Kane

higher costs for EU Steel producers. We anticipated these risks would supercede (44-20) 7742-6729

the benefits of new EU Steel protectionism. Our thesis has not materialised and our dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

EU Steel index is +10% over the period. We expect Q2 reporting will refocus J.P. Morgan Securities plc

attention on the transformative impact of ~40% cuts to EU steel imports and 50% Patrick Jones

import tariffs effective from 1 July (“TRQ”), which has potential to transfer >10Mt (44-20) 7742-5964

patrick.jones@jpmorgan.com

of demand to EU Steel producers. We previously outlined this durable earnings J.P. Morgan Securities plc

transformation in European Renaissance, Nov'25, and we continue to forecast

Rosie Jia

>20% EBITDA growth 2027E vs 2026E. Since 1 July, EU Steel mills have (44-20) 3493-7448

attempted to raise prices and we expect an EU re-stocking cycle will start by end rosie.jia@jpmorgan.com

of Q3. Key changes are: we double upgrade Voestalpine to OW (PT €50/sh), we J.P. Morgan Securities plc

double upgrade Salzgitter to OW (PT €65/sh), we upgrade ArcelorMittal to Neutral Varun Bhattad

(PT €57/sh) vs UW previously (€45/sh). We are positive on the earnings trajectory (91-22) 6157-5027