TSR support intact, but 4W risks are building

研报英文原文证据摘录

TSR support intact, but 4W risks are building

Macquarie Equity Research

07 July 2026

Capital Goods

Astra International ASEAN

Ari Jayden

Key Points Jahja Vantarakis

• Disciplined capital allocation and shareholder returns persist; 4W ASII IJ Outperform

trends remain a key watch point amid macro and competitive Price (at 7 Jul 2026) IDR4,930

pressures. 12-month target IDR5,850

• We cut auto & FinServ forecasts to reflect emerging macro risks. 12-monthVolatility IndexTSR (%) Medium25.8

Moreover, we bake in lower UNTR earnings. Market Cap (Local) (m) 198,780,774

Market Cap (USD) (m) 11,050• We cut our SOTP-based TP 12% to Rp5,850; post-correction risk-reward

looks attractive, with buybacks providing downside support. Free Float (%) 45

30-day avg turnover (USD) (m) 17.3

Investment Fundamentals• Lowering earnings forecasts. While 2W demand remained resilient

Year end 31 Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

(5M26 sales +0.7% YoY), our FY26 market forecast is ~5% below AISI's Revenue (bn) 323,392 297,186 318,366 329,395

target. On 4W, 5M26 sales rose 13% YoY and reached 42% of GAIKINDO's Revenue growth (%) (1.5) (8.1) 7.1 3.5

850k-unit target, but we remain cautious given macro headwinds EBIT (bn) 38,665 29,692 37,688 38,447

and forecast FY26 volumes ~7% below the association's outlook. We EBIT growth (%) (8.8) (23.2) 26.9 2.0

Reported profit (bn) 32,769 24,245 30,876 32,366

assume ASII's 4W market share moderates to 49%/46% in FY26–27E, Adjusted profit (bn) 32,769 26,025 30,876 32,366

despite a resilient ~51% share in 5M26, as competition in the Hybrid EPS rep [IDR] 810.1 612.0 799.6 847.0

segment intensifies. We also adopt more conservative Financial Services EPS rep growth (%) (3.3) (24.4) 30.6 5.9

assumptions, reflecting higher credit costs and lower asset yields.