(Literally) Exiting “The Strait of Q1 Blues” – can we Climb Cyclical Wall of Wor

研报英文原文证据摘录

(Literally) Exiting “The Strait of Q1 Blues” – can we Climb Cyclical Wall of Wor

Global Automotive

July 07, 2026

Chris McNally (Literally) Exiting “The Strait of Q1 Blues” –

+44 207 847 3502 can we Climb Cyclical Wall of Worry + Keep chris.mcnally@evercoreisi.com

John Saager, CFA AI Momentum

646-895-1735

John.Saager@evercoreISI.com

Alex Kulicki PM Summary – after a rough Spring, our proprietary 4-Way Auto

646-225-6053 Traffic Signal system has gone GREEN…what does that mean for Q2

alex.kulicki@evercoreisi.com EPS and the potential for the evergreen Seasonal Trade Sept to YE?

Global Autos Team Contact:

EvrISI_Autos@evercoreisi.com

Sector Thesis – simply put, we can only remain bullish Auto if we are

broadly right on our underlying ++ US SAAR call and Q2 has clearly

provided the kindling to ignite a small upside SAAR fire. Since

March/Iran lows, the global Auto Macro has also gotten better MoM

where we have recently highlighted our proprietary 4-Way Traffic

Signal (Oil, SAAR, rates, supply-chain) has gone GREEN given: 1)

Iran conflict appears “over” from an Oil perspective, 2) US SAAR up

trending >16MM, 3) Consumer Cyclicals & incoming dovish Fed, & 4)

Lack of Idiosyncratic stumbles (Chinese exports/”Mix”, DRAM better

than worst case & no Middle East supply shocks).

US/EU SAAR supports 2H ++ Revisions – June’s US SAAR of

16.5MM, +8% YoY brought Q2 to 16.2MM, in line with our upside

16.2MM FY while consensus has yet to budge from ~15.9MM. May EU

SAAR also came in an extremely strong 14.4MM, with YTD trend

approaching ~14MM or +5-6%E YoY. Don’t overthink it – Sales

drives Production and Inventory is balanced. We see ++ FY IHS

revisions of +1-2%, for both NA/EU, in the coming months which,

alongside a dovish Fed pivot, should spark a broader bullish