DHL Group: FY26 EBIT to €7.1bn - Buy on Express improved operating leverage

研报英文原文证据摘录

DHL Group: FY26 EBIT to €7.1bn - Buy on Express improved operating leverage

Equity Research

European Transportation

8 July 2026

DHL Group

FY26 EBIT to €7.1bn - Buy on

Express improved operating

DPWGn.DE/DHL GY OVERWEIGHTleverage

Unchanged

DHL model update post 2Q26 pre-release. 2Q supported by European Transportation NEUTRAL

non-recurring tailwinds in Express/FF. We expect some of that Unchanged

to stay in 3Q + fuel down a tailwind to Express on surcharge Price Target raised 5% fromEUREUR62.0059.00

delay. 3Q EBIT at €1.75bn, FY26 at €7.1bn. Beyond the ST, we Price (06-Jul-26) EUR 55.72

think Express a much better business after restructuring. Potential Upside/Downside +11.3% Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

We increase FY26 EBIT to €7.1bn and FY27 to €7.3bn, PT to €62. We reflect the preliminary Market Cap (EUR mn) 64078

2Q26 EBIT in our model, with reported 2Q EBIT of c€1.85mn c€200mn above our previous Shares Outstanding (mn) 1150.00

expectations. We model for 3Q at c€1.75bn, €100mn down QoQ. In Express, we expect 3Q26 EBIT Free Float (%) 79.12

at €1.1bn, €100mn below QoQ as we model for 1) c€70mn fuel tailwind on fuel surcharges delay 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 1.9

and fuel price normalizing; 2) c€50mn EBIT benefit from market tightness from €150mn in 2Q; 3) Dividend Yield (%) 3.35

lower seasonality QoQ. Our 3Q26 FF EBIT is flattish QoQ. Our 4Q26 EBIT stands at c€2bn, with Return on Equity TTM (%) 14.96

Express EBIT at €1.250mn, c€150mn up YoY. Our FY26 EBIT increases to €7.1bn, above the MT Current BVPS (EUR) 21.02

target but supported by c€200mn non-recurring tailwind in 2Q and extending somewhat into Q3 Source: Bloomberg

too. Our SOTP PT increases to €62 from €59 on higher 2026 forecasts. Our FY27 EBIT stands at