U.S. Healthcare Facilities & Managed Care: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: MCO Expectations Rightfully Elevated, Downgrading Hospitals (HCA, UHS, CYH)

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U.S. Healthcare Facilities & Managed Care: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: MCO Expectations Rightfully Elevated, Downgrading Hospitals (HCA, UHS, CYH)

Equity Research

8 July 2026

U.S. Healthcare Facilities & Managed Care

2Q26 Earnings Preview: MCO

Expectations Rightfully Elevated,

U.S. Healthcare Facilities & Managed CareDowngrading Hospitals (HCA, UHS,

NEUTRAL

UnchangedCYH) U.S. Healthcare Facilities & Managed

2Q results are likely to reinforce shifting fundamental cycles Care

Andrew Mok, CFA

for payors (positive) and hospitals (negative). We downgrade +1 212 526 5496

several hospitals (HCA, UHS, CYH) after a healthy rebound andrew.mok@barclays.com BCI, US

from June lows. Tiffany Yuan

+1 212 526 5568

UNH + Managed Care Setup: Following favorable company and industry intra-quarter updates, tiffany.yuan@barclays.com

we believe UNH is well positioned to beat and raise, reinforcing inflecting MCO fundamentals BCI, US

and supporting a more constructive backdrop for the group. For UNH, consensus 2Q estimates Thomas Walsh

for EPS ($4.84), MLR (88.5%), and Optum Health (OH) adjusted EBIT ($477 mn) look well- +1 212 526 5096

calibrated. However, with shares up 24% since 1Q (vs. +6% S&P), investor expectations are thomas.walsh@barclays.com

clearly elevated. Our discussions suggest a very high (but achievable) bar, including a 100-bp BCI, US

MLR beat, $1.00 EPS raise, and a $500 mn OH EBIT raise. Against this backdrop, longer-term Mingchuan Song

expectations have also moved notably higher, with many investors now forecasting 2028 EPS in +1 212 526 9787

the high $20s. Finally, 2Q Bloomberg consensus adjusted EBIT for Optum Rx of $1.5 bn looks mingchuan.song@barclays.com

slightly high, implying 2H contribution of 57.5% of full-year vs. UNH's guide of ~60%. One-liners BCI, US