Medartis Holding AG "Keri TOUCH delivering – Upgrade to Buy" (Buy) Hansalik

研报英文原文证据摘录

Medartis Holding AG "Keri TOUCH delivering – Upgrade to Buy" (Buy) Hansalik

pt incremental revenues for

From To % ch Cons.

the group/US region. On the back of the faster-than-expected US market adoption, we 12/26E 1.42 1.43 1 1.41

have revised our sales projections. We forecast ~10% market (vs. ~5% prev.) 12/27E 2.14 2.32 8 2.19

penetration or ~15k thumb arthritis procedures by 2030, implying cCHF75m US TOUCH 12/28E 2.95 3.29 12 3.11

sales at today's reimbursement, aligned with company targets. Supported by cross-

selling opportunities for the Medartis hand & wrist portfolio, we forecast ~25% org. Tanya Hansalik

sales FY26-30 CAGR for the US business. Assuming faster market adoption of TOUCH, Analyst

tanya.hansalik@ubs.com

ie, higher group sales/margins by c500bps, we see an upside valuation of CHF140/sh.

+41-44-239-2053

Operational leverage and mix support expanding cash flows Leonie Zirn

Analyst

Driven by a more favourable sales mix (higher Keri Medical sales/US exposure) and leonie.zirn@ubs.com

operating leverage, partially offset by growth investments, we expect Core EBITDA +41-44-235 0154

margin to expand from 18.4% in FY25 to ~22.3% by FY30E. While capex remains

elevated near-term (~6% of FY26E sales) due to capacity expansion and the US launch,

declining investment intensity and stronger profitability should drive improving FCFs (to

c30% FCF conversion by FY30E), despite ~CHF36m of outstanding Keri earn-outs.

Valuation: Higher growth potential warrants premium

We reflect our revised mid-term estimates in our DCF-derived valuation of Medartis, but

maintain our long-term assumptions (TGR 2.5%, WACC 7.6%), lifting our PT to CHF97

(from CHF87). Medartis trades at c17.7x EV/EBITDA for FY26E, a premium vs