Centurion Accommodation REIT "Foundations firm, cycle still rising" (Buy) Lim

研报英文原文证据摘录

Centurion Accommodation REIT "Foundations firm, cycle still rising" (Buy) Lim

pansion at Toh Guan received its FEDA licence in March 2026 and is expected to

contribute through December 2028. At Westlite Mandai, the 1,980-bed expansion could secure its

FEDA licence and commence leasing by July.

EVIDENCE BCA forecasts S$47-53bn of construction contracts to be awarded in 2026 and S$39-46bn p.a. over

2027-30. We believe these figures are a conservative baseline as BCA's one-year-ahead guidance has

historically undershot actual demand, with its forecast coming in 9% below actuals in 2023 and 28%

below in 2024. Its two- to four-year forecasts have also been materially below realised awards,

suggesting further upside if public-sector project timing, institutional demand and private-sector

recovery prove stronger than assumed.

WHAT´S PRICED IN? CAREIT offers prospective yield-plus-growth of ~18% across 2026-27E, materially above the broader

SREIT universe at 9% comprising 6% yield plus 3% growth. We do not think this upside is fully

reflected in the current valuation as investors remain cautious on near-term execution milestones, UK

leasing conditions, and the pace of contribution from expansion assets.Please

Upside/Downside

Spectrum

PBWA Rent Long-term Interest cost Mid-term/terminal Cost of Valuedrivers

reversion 2026-28E occupancy 2026-28E growth equity

S$1.36 upside 4.0% 97.8% 3.8%-4.1% 3.0%/2.5% 8.4%

S$1.25 base 3.0% 97.3% 3.9%-4.2% 2.5%/2.5% 8.7%

S$0.98 downside 1.0% 95.0% 4.0%-4.6% 1.0%/2.0% 8.9%

Source: UBS estimates

Company Description CAREIT is the first pure-play purpose-built living accommodation REIT listed on the SGX. The portfolio

comprises 15 assets, with five PBWA assets in Singapore, eight PBSA assets in the UK, and two PBSA

assets located in Australia.