Airlines & Aerospace "Plane spotting - Italy/Spain continue to drive..."

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Airlines & Aerospace "Plane spotting - Italy/Spain continue to drive..."

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Airlines & Aerospace Equities

GlobalPlane spotting - Italy/Spain continue to drive

European capacity growth leadership in June Airlines

Amal Patel

Analyst

amal.patel@ubs.com

UBS Evidence Lab Global Airline Traffic Monitor +44-20-7568 3973

We use data from the UBS Evidence Lab Global Airline Traffic Monitor (> Access dataset). Jarrod Castle, CFA

This monthly monitor aims to aggregate global commercial air traffic data at the flight Analyst

level, with each flight then mapped to an airline operator, country/region of take-off and jarrod.castle@ubs.com

operation, engine type, aircraft manufacturer and body type. For each flight, a measure +44-20-7568 8883

of passenger-carrying capacity is calculated, based on available seat kilometres (ASK). Ivar Billfalk-Kelly

We think the data allows us to estimate the extent of the global airline traffic recovery Analyst

before traffic is announced or estimated, which is useful for predicting revenues. The ivar.billfalk-kelly@ubs.com

time series began in January 2018 and extends to the 30th June 2026. +44-20-7568 3240

Cristian Nedelcu, CFA

June capacity growth stable m/m in Europe (-2% y/y) whilst US sees slight Analyst

deterioration m/m (-3% y/y) and China slight improvement m/m (-2% y/y); cristian.nedelcu@ubs.com

growth trend divergence continues to characterise Europe with Italy/Spain best +44-20-7568 4375

performers and Germany lagging Ian Douglas-Pennant

Analysing capacity data for the month of June, we note the following: Analyst

ian.douglas-pennant@ubs.com

Europe capacity growth for the month of June was -2% y/y, in line with the +44-20-7568 0936

growth from the prior month.