MarketAxess Holdings Inc. "Estimates Continue to Bleed" (Buy) Kramm

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MarketAxess Holdings Inc. "Estimates Continue to Bleed" (Buy) Kramm

Global Research

7 July 2026ab

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Equities

AmericasEstimates Continue to Bleed

Diversified Financial

12-month rating Buy

Lowering 2Q26E EPS to $1.83 from $1.93 vs. Street consensus at $1.91

Following MKTX's June metrics release, we are lowering our 2Q26 EPS estimate to $1.83 12m price target US$200.00

from $1.93 (vs. $1.91 Street) on lower-than-expected credit FPM. Our 2Q26 EPS Prior : US$215.00

estimate comes down by 5% and is now 4% below consensus. Preliminary credit

Price (07 Jul 2026) US$118.60

FPM came in 3% below our estimate, while total credit volume was ~1% below our

expectations for the quarter, as trading activity in Eurobonds , Emerging Markets, and RIC: MKTX.O BBG: MKTX US

US HY volumes was softer. We are lowering our forecast for revenues by 2%, now

Trading data and key metrics

forecasting -1.5% growth in 2Q26. We are also lowering our forecasts for both FY26

52-wk range US$219.28-109.09

EPS and FY27 EPS by ~5% as our revenue forecasts come down on the back of lower

estimates for credit FPM in both years. Key initiatives, such as portfolio trading and block Market cap. US$4.40b

trading, are tracking well, but it is not enough to offset weakness elsewhere. Shares o/s 37.1m (COM)

Free float 97%

Credit volume up 13% y/y in June and flat y/y in the 2Q Avg. daily volume ('000) 643

Credit ADV of $17.7bn was up 13% y/y in June on strong US IG and Emerging Avg. daily value (m) US$86

Markets (EM) volumes. Within credit, US IG ADV was up 11% y/y, US HY ADV rose Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$1.26b

6% y/y, Eurobond ADV increased 15% y/y, EM ADV increased 16% y/y, and Other P/BV (12/26E) 3.3x

Credit ADV (which is mostly munis) was 16% higher than June 2025 levels.