Asia Watch: Singapore marketing takeaways: Repositioning for a different 3Q26 in Asia

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Asia Watch: Singapore marketing takeaways: Repositioning for a different 3Q26 in Asia

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Asia Watch

Singapore marketing takeaways:

Repositioning for a different 3Q26 in Asia

We met with over 40 investors in Singapore from 30 Jun to 2 Jul to discuss the macro 06 July 2026

outlook across China, Korea and ASEAN. We summarize our key takeaways below: GEM Economics

Asia

Key 3Q26 themes: Oil, AI, China fiscal, Fed & El Niño

Investors were increasingly focused on how to reposition for 3Q26, with discussions Benson Wu, CFA

China & Korea Economist

centered on the country-level implications of the ongoing global AI upcycle, lower oil Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

prices, fiscal deployment (China and Korea), and a more hawkish Fed backdrop – +852benson.wu@bofa.com3508 5047

particularly if our call for three Fed hikes this year will materialize. Interest in El Niño in Kai Wei Ang

ASEAN was also stronger than we had anticipated, with some investors viewing ASEAN Economist

associated risks as under-appreciated by markets. Merrill+65 6678Lynch5518(Singapore)

kaiwei.ang@bofa.com

China: a consensus towards delayed growth rebalancing

There was little pushback on our forecasts (4.5% GDP growth this year, USD/CNY at 6.7

Glossaryby year-end, and no further rate cuts). Instead, discussions focused on what conditions

could trigger additional policy stimulus later this year. Most investors agreed that as BI: Bank Indonesia

long as exports remain resilient, there is limited urgency for meaningful easing. That

said, questions around fiscal policy have become more prominent. Some investors are KLIBOR: Kuala Lumpur Interbank

concerned that delayed fiscal deployment could extend into 3Q given local government Offered Rate

fiscal constraints.