Metals & Mining: Sector Update. Earnings season outlook. BOL Nexa deal. Valuations

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Metals & Mining: Sector Update. Earnings season outlook. BOL Nexa deal. Valuations

Deutsche Bank

Research

Global Industry Date

5 July 2026

Metals & Mining Metals & Mining

Metals & Mining Periodical

Sector Update. Earnings season

outlook. BOL Nexa deal. Valuations

Liam Fitzpatrick

Sector update: macro headwinds, structural story intact Research Analyst

This week, we refreshed our commodity price and earnings estimates. The sector +44-20-754-13233

has lost momentum in recent weeks after a strong run year to date. The US dollar

Bastian Synagowitz

has strengthened, China macro data has softened and AI data centre-linked Research Analyst

equities have been volatile. We believe fundamentals remain solid, but +41-44-227-3377

performance may be choppy in the near term until the Fed signals a less hawkish

Cody Hayden

tilt. The recent ~15% correction has opened up some pockets of value; our top picks

Research Analyst

are Anglo Teck, GLEN, FM and FCX.

+44-20-754-13230

Copper prices have come under pressure from the firmer US dollar, with a pending

decision on US copper tariffs a key near-term event. We believe an incentive price

regime is here to stay, although assume some moderation in prices in 2027 (to ~

$12,500/t) on a recovery in global mine supply. Aluminium prices have corrected

following the reopening of the SoH as bullish positioning has unwound and on news

that production could recover quicker than previously expected in the Gulf. We see

scope for a modest rebound in prices in H2 followed by a normalisation back to ~

$3,000/t through 2027. Iron ore prices have been under pressure as the key war

drivers have unwound (supply concerns, diesel and freight costs), although we

expect the upper end of the cost curve to limit the downside. Key 2026 price