2Q26 Preview; Power / LNG Demand and Positioning in Focus

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26 Preview; Power / LNG Demand and Positioning in Focus

Market Focus: 1) Power: Update to expected incremental power demand growth (base case)

of ~10 bcfpd through decade-end, upside to expected in-basin demand growth and progress

on projects like Homer City and Shippingport. Focus also on incremental in-basin gas supply

agreements opportunities. 2) Volumes: Targeted growth through ’28 based on current macro

setup. Update (if any) to ’26 guide of 2,275-2,375 bcfe (JEFe at guide high-end, or ~6.5 bcfepd

and in-line with Cons). 3) Macro: Mgmt. view on US nat gas supply and demand dynamics for

the next 12-18 months considering the expected addition of Permian takeaway capacity and

Appalachia positioning. 4) MVP Southgate: Regulatory aspect likely complete with the pipeline

construction approved in North Carolina. 5) LNG: Update on outlook and progress on building the

marketing team, systems, and customer off-take agreements to place 4.5 MTPA of offtake volumes

globally. 6) Capital Allocation: At strip, we expect EQT to reach net debt target of ~$5bn by 4Q26.

Focus on shareholder returns strategy. 7) ’26 Guidance: 3Q26 guide. Update (if any) to ’26 capex

(maintenance + growth) guide of ~$2.65-$2.85bn, along with total per unit operating costs guide

of $1.07-$1.21 per mcfe and opportunities to further lower these costs.

Valuation: At our pricing deck (Ex.1), our ‘26/’27 EBITDA (pre-NCI) of ~$6.6/$7.3bn remains largely

unchanged with ’28 EBITDA lowered by ~3% to ~$8.0bn. We model ’27 volumes of ~6.65 bcfepd

Lloyd Byrne * | Equity Analyst

(+2% y/y) and lowering ’28 growth to ~2% (~6.8 bcfepd) from ~5%, while continue to model ‘29/’30 +1 (212) 323-7528 | lloyd.byrne@jefferies.com

volumes growth of ~5% y/y. Revising PT to $75 from $77. Buy.

Rahul Kakkar * | Equity Analyst