A Long Runway in an Underpenetrated Market; Initiate at Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

A Long Runway in an Underpenetrated Market; Initiate at Buy

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCX IN)

Equity Research

July 1, 2026

We est. risk weighted earnings opportunityOptionalities could add another 15-20% to earnings

from optionalities could be 15-20% over the

Besides structural penetration growth, MCX also has multiple optionalities including: (1) coal medium-term.

exchange, (2) Colocation, (3) FPI participation in non-cash derivatives and (4) weekly option

contracts. We estimate these opportunities could add ~22-34% to earnings over the next 5 years.

However, noting some of these opportunities (colocation, expansion of FPI participation and weekly

options) require regulatory approval, we have applied a probability to the earnings opportunity. Our

risk weighted earnings opportunity could be 15-20% over the medium-term.

Exhibit 43 - We think coal exchange, expansion of FPI participation, colocation and weekly options represent a 15-20% risk adjusted earnings optionality

Revenue Earnings Dependent on

New opportunities Overview opportunity size opportunity Timeline regulatory Probability Comment

(JEFe) (JEFe) change?

Government of India plans to move away from e-auction of

Assumes both futures and options are allowed on coal

coal to exchange based price discovery. NSE, IEX and MCX

Coal exchange have received approval to start a coal exchange. Start of ~3-5% ~4-6% Over next 5 years No 100% contracts. Further, we have assumed trading characteristics

in coal contracts will be similar to crude. We have assumed

operations will depend on finalization of regulations. Expect

MCX has 90% market share in these contracts.

the contract to be similar to other energy contracts.

Assuming 200 racks for MCX with an avg. realization at 50%