ST Fuel Margin Upside + LT Store Growth Visibility = Upgrade to Buy, PT to $625

研报英文原文证据摘录

ST Fuel Margin Upside + LT Store Growth Visibility = Upgrade to Buy, PT to $625

- MUSA EBITDA Expectations

$1.24B $1.18BWhile industry data has trended positively, we believe it may understate the earnings power of $1.4B$1.2B $1.14B $1.11B $1.06B $1.18B $1.15B $1.03B $1.00B

scaled operators ahead. Historically, the spread between reported margins and our Index has been $1.0B

~3¢ but widened to ~15¢ last quarter. While this could imply further upside to our estimates, we are $0.8B

conservatively anchoring at 36¢ for Q2, bringing our EBITDA to $346M vs. cons: $333M. Looking $0.6B$0.4B

ahead, we model modest normalization in 2027 (down ~1–2¢), followed by gradual ~0.5¢ annual $0.2B

increases thereafter. $0.0B 2026E 2027E 2028E

MUSA* JEF Cons

New Store Pipeline Supports Out-Year Growth. Beyond fuel, our confidence in the LT EBITDA .Source: Company Data, FactSet, Jefferies

trajectory is increasingly supported by MUSA’s target of at least 50 new stores annually, which is a *Estimates from MUSA's March 2026

significant driver of earnings growth with contribution from both fuel and inside (nicotine, food, etc.). presentations

Expanding MUSA's NTI pipeline remains a key strategic priority, with excess cash flow increasingly

directed toward building and prioritizing its land bank to support future development, not just share

repurchases. Each annual cohort is expected to contribute roughly $35–50M of EBITDA at maturity

following a ~3-year ramp, creating a visible “stair-step” earnings build as overlapping classes scale,

helping cushion profit amid fuel volatility, with support from merch mix (alternatives, energy, etc.).

Raising PT to $625. We are increasing our PT to $625, reflecting higher EBITDA and a modest

multiple re-rating.