EDP Renovaveis (EDPR PL) Buy: Upside beyond 2028

研报英文原文证据摘录

EDP Renovaveis (EDPR PL) Buy: Upside beyond 2028

Equities ● Electric Utilities

3 July 2026

We expect net capacity additions to We forecast net capex at EUR1.3bn-2.3bn

increase above c1.0GW by 2029e per year for 2027-30

EDPR additions (GW, LHS) and total EDPR CAPEX (net, EURm)

capacity (GW, RHS)

4.0 35 3,500

Rotated

3.5 30 3,000 Equity Capital APAC net

3.0 25 2,500 Offshore

LatAm net 2.5 2,000 20

2.0 Other Europe net Maintenance

15 1,500 Capex onshore

1.5 Portugal net

1,000 10

1.0 Spain net 500 Growth Capex

0.5 5 North America net onshore

0 0.0 0

2015 2018 2021 2024 Total capacity 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027e 2029e 2027e 2030e 2033e

Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Company data, HSBC estimates

EDPR expects spreads over WACC of >250bp for 2026-28 and we are in line with the guidance.

The company has reported an IRR- WACC spread of c285bps for the 3.2GW of projects it

secured for 2026-28 providing potential upside to margins.

2026 guidance upgraded due to improved outlook on asset rotation gains

During the Q1 2026 results presentation, EDPR slightly upgraded its 2026 EBITDA guidance to

EUR2.2bn versus previous guidance of cEUR2.1bn. The upgrade is mainly driven by the

company’s improved outlook on asset rotation gains and efficiencies. Management shows

higher confidence in the three-year plan and highlights buffers and conservative assumptions.

The company expects net profit to increase from EUR0.2bn in 2025 to EUR0.6bn by 2028. In-

line with guidance, we estimate EBITDA to grow by cEUR300m during 2026-28 due to a

recovery in wind resources and new assets. Similar to EBITDA, we expect a recovery in net

income in 2026 and cEUR400m of growth to 2028e, with asset rotation gains of more than

cEUR200m per year during 2026-28.