U.S. Banks: 2Q26 Preview - Another Strong Quarter

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U.S. Banks: 2Q26 Preview - Another Strong Quarter

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Gerard Cassidy (Co-Head of

Global Financials Research)

(207) 780-1554,

gerard.cassidy@rbccm.com

Thomas Leddy (AVP)

thomas.leddy@rbccm.com

July 1, 2026

U.S. Banks: 2Q26 Preview - Another Strong QuarterRESEARCH Loan Growth & Capital Markets Revenue Should Highlight the Quarter

Our view: The 2Q26 will focus on core EPS growth and business trends including credit quality, net

interest margins (NIMs), capital markets activity and loan growth. Trends in Y/Y net interest income

growth to be driven by higher NIMs and stronger loan growth as well as the "back book" of the bond

portfolios repricing higher in 2Q26. We'll also hear about the outlook for second half 2026 loan growth,

especially commercial & industrial (C&I.) Federal Reserve data suggests C&I growth accelerated in 2Q26

but uncertainty regarding the Middle East conflict and the subsequent volatility in oil prices could weigh

on the economic and bank stock outlook if the conflict is protracted. Capital market revenues will beEQUITY

a focus for selected banks, and we expect to hear positive commentary on the Markets & Investment

Banking businesses. Additionally, wealth management revenue growth should be strong again in 2Q26.

On credit quality, it should remain resilient, but we think investors will focus their attention on loans to

Non-depository Financial Institutions and any idiosyncratic flare-ups in C&I credit trends.

2Q26 estimated EPS: We expect median core EPS to increase 19% from 2Q25 and 0.7% from 1Q26.

Year-over-year, the increase should be driven by higher net interest revenue and core noninterest

income, lower loan loss provisions and positive operating leverage. Sequentially, we expect higher total