GLEN: Model update

研报英文原文证据摘录

GLEN: Model update

RBC Europe Limited

Ben Davis (Analyst)

+44 20 7002 2065, ben.davis@rbccm.com

Laura Chan (Analyst)

+44 20 7029 7537, laura.chan@rbccm.com

Marina Calero (Analyst) UPDATE +44 20 7429 8785, marina.calero@rbccm.com

July 1, 2026

Glencore PLC Outperform

LSE: GLEN; GBp 513.80 MODEL Model update Price Target GBp 600

Our view: We update our model for H1 thermal coal Richards Bay realised Scenario Analysis* prices. Our average 2026-28e EBITDA and EPS remain largely unchanged

and we reiterate our price target of 600p. We prefer Glencore to the other Downside Current Price Upside

large diversified miners given its lack of iron ore exposure and with thermal Scenario Price Target Scenario

and met coal prices (~30% of EBITDA) into the cost curve and a potential 380.00 513.80 600.00 890.00

restructure on the cards (coal spin, stake sales in copper projects). 22% 23% 78%

*Implied Total Returns

Key points: Key Statistics

H1 26 Expectations SharesDividend:O/S (MM): 11,730.70.31 MarketYield: Cap (MM): 60,2724.5%

The conditions created by the conflict in the Middle East would have NAVPS: 389 P/NAVPS: 1.32x

Avg. Daily Volume: 27,177,130RESEARCH boosted energy marketing and coal getting a short term kick, but not much Market Cap in GBP

expected into H2 at this stage. Small negative impacts to production from

Cerrejon offset by African copper. RBC Estimates

FY Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

Copper: We forecast Q2 production of 205kt, in line with consensus. This EPS, Adj Diluted 0.20 0.40 0.50 0.53

is +3% QoQ driven by higher grades at Collahuasi and improving volumes Prev. 0.39 0.51 0.54

at African Copper. FY26 production is guided to be H2 weighted with H1 P/AEPS 34.9x 17.1x 13.5x 12.7x

guided to be in the range of 390-420kt (RBCe: 405kt, Cons 406kt).