easyJet Agreement reached in principle for easyJet to be acquired by Castlelake at 690p per share

研报英文原文证据摘录

easyJet Agreement reached in principle for easyJet to be acquired by Castlelake at 690p per share

Harry J Gowers AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-7522 05 July 2026 C A Z E N O V E

harry.gowers@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

easyJet (Underweight; Price Target: 360p)

Investment Thesis

• We see risks of pricing pressure from high capacity growth. easyJet is growing +7%

in Sep-26E into a competitive UK leisure market, which has seen elevated capacity

growth from peers. This is combined with bookings uncertainty around the Middle East.

This includes a high amount of new route/base expansion which could take longer to

mature. In our view, pricing may not be robust enough to offset higher costs.

• Ex-fuel CASK inflation elevated. Despite capacity growth, we model ex-fuel CASK

up +5% in Sep-26E, driven by inflationary pressures across most cost lines and little

upgauging benefit coming through yet.

• Airline margins could weaken further. Winter losses are worse in Sep-26E versus the

prior year, and Airline margins have weakened given pricing/cost dynamics. Stronger

Holidays growth may not be able to offset weaker Airline margins at the group level.

• Large increase in capex coming. Capex is forecast to increase to £3.3bn by Sep-28E,

putting pressure on returns and the ability to return excess cash to shareholders.

Valuation

We think easyJet should trade on a 30% discount to its average multiples since 2010 (ex the

pandemic) due to lower growth and earnings risk. Our Dec-27 PT of 360p is thus based on

the average of the following target multiples applied to our calendarised 2028 forecasts (5x

EV/EBITDA; 11x EV/EBIT; 8x P/E).

Risks to Rating and Price Target

EZJ-specific risks: (1) Pricing growth is stronger than we expect on lower competitive