EMEA Base Metals Q2’26 into the print: turn more selective as macro risks more balanced, but cost risks into results season, u/g Antofagasta to OW, stay UW Lundin

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EMEA Base Metals Q2’26 into the print: turn more selective as macro risks more balanced, but cost risks into results season, u/g Antofagasta to OW, stay UW Lundin

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

06 July 2026

EMEA Base Metals

Q2’26 into the print: turn more selective as macro risks

more balanced, but cost risks into results season, u/g

Antofagasta to OW, stay UW Lundin

Since the start of the Iran-US conflict, MSCI European Metals & Mining is -7% European Metals, Mining & Steel

ACdespite copper prices effectively flat over the period and aluminium prices have Patrick Jones

returned to pre-war levels. JPM Commodities Research (led by Greg Shearer) see (44-20) 7742-5964

support for copper prices near term given a ‘tug of war’ between US tariff-driven patrick.jones@jpmorgan.com

imports and China consumers (link) ahead of a potential US Section 232 tariff J.P. Morgan Securities plc

announcement (albeit this poses binary risks for prices). The team also still Dominic O'Kane

forecasts ~1.7Mt deficit in the aluminium market as de-escalation will only permit (44-20) 7742-6729

dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

a gradual return of >2Mtpa of capacity curtailed due to the war. The spike in oil and J.P. Morgan Securities plc

energy prices during the conflict has also since unwound, likely implying higher

Varun Bhattad

costs into Q2’26 results season, but declining costs over Q3 & Q4’26. For (91-22) 6157-5027

Antofagasta, although there is modest downside risk to 2026 copper output varun.bhattad@jpmchase.com

guidance, we see only minimal risks to consensus (already at the lower end of J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

guidance). With peer-leading production growth and FCF inflection to 2028E, we Rosie Jia

upgrade ANTO to OW from Neutral (link).