Antofagasta Peer leading ~30% organic copper growth with FCF inflection & improving valuation; upgrade to Overweight

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Antofagasta Peer leading ~30% organic copper growth with FCF inflection & improving valuation; upgrade to Overweight

ANTO offers +10% Rosie Jia

+/30% copper growth to 2027/28E, one of the highest among its Major Global (44-20) 3493-7448

Copper peers. ANTO’s growth is also relatively lower risk vs peers, where rosie.jia@jpmorgan.com

growth is more skewed towards higher risk greenfield projects, operational J.P. Morgan Securities plc

recoveries, or restarts. Although ANTO could signal 2026 copper output will

come in at the lower end of the guidance range (650-700kt), risk to consensus Key Changes (FYE Dec)

appears modest as Bloomberg consensus already forecasts 663kt (JPMe: Prev Cur Δ

657kt). Adj. EPS - 26E ($) 1.79 1.96 9.4%

• Growth drives valuation & FCF inflection vs peers. Over 2019-25, a key Adj. EPS - 27E ($) 1.44 2.24 55.4%

concern for investors was ANTO’s relatively lower near-term FCF generation Half Yearly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

(given higher capex) when peers were often generating >10% FCF yields. Adj. EPS ($)

However, ANTO’s peer leading organic growth now drives a valuation & FCF 2025A 2026E 2027E

inflection vs peers. We forecast ANTO’s spot EV/EBITDA to decline from H1 0.47 0.85 1.08

~11x in 2025E to ~7x in 2028E vs Major Copper peers on ~8x. Also, FCF yield H2 0.82 1.10 1.16

FY 1.29 1.96 2.24

will inflect from -2% in 2025E to +6% in 2028E, vs peers on ~6%. Production

and thus earnings growth also drives ROCE rebounding to >30% by 2028 from Style Exposure

<20% in 2024.

• US-China ‘tug of war’ supporting prices despite near-term surpluses; but

JPM Commodities Research still forecast ~2Mt deficit 2030E. JPM

Commodities Research (led by Greg Shearer) expect the global copper market

to be modestly oversupplied in 2026/27E despite resilient demand and