Julius Baer CFO appointment a positive; upgrading forecasts for positive MtM

研报英文原文证据摘录

Julius Baer CFO appointment a positive; upgrading forecasts for positive MtM

CHF) 5.69 5.83 2.4%

growth metric that the market is looking at from the perspective of assessing

the franchise strength post the significant changes implemented by new Half Yearly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

management in 2025. We also mark-to-market for June-end, which leads to higher Adj. EPS (CHF)

AuM and we increase our 2026-28E Adj. EPS by 2% p.a. driven mainly by higher 2025A 2026E 2027E

revenues, partly offset by higher costs. Our Dec-27 SOP-based PT rises to CHF 79 H1 1.98 3.05

H2 2.29 2.46

(from CHF 78 previously), driven by our EPS upgrades. BAER trades at 12.5x P/E FY 4.27 5.52 5.83

2027E, offering a dividend yield of 3.9%.

Style Exposure

• BAER, at its 4-M IMS in May, reiterated confidence in reaching its 4-5% net

new money target by 2028, but for FY26 had lowered its expectation to

somewhat below 2025 levels of 2.9%. Post the weak 1.7% annualized flow in

Jan-Apr, we forecast CHF 5bn or 1.9% annualized net new money for 1H 26.

We forecast 2.3% net new money for 2026, improving to 3.6% and 4.1% in

2027E/28E. Market-related developments and FX have also been positive

since April and should provide a tailwind – we forecast AuM of CHF 545bn

at June-end, improving from CHF 528bn at the end of April.

• We forecast 86bps Gross Margin for 1H26 vs. 90bps in Jan-April, with BAER

indicating 81bps exit Gross Margin post activity normalization in April. We see

activity-related margins driving normalization as transaction volumes come

down from their peaks. We forecast NII-related margins and recurring income-

based margins to remain broadly stable at 60bps vs. 4M-IMS. For FY26, we

forecast Gross Margins of 81bps.

• On costs, for 4-M 2026, BAER reported a C/I ratio of 62%, reflecting the strong