NFLX: Bullish EPS Setup - Raising Revenues on Historically Low Valuation

研报英文原文证据摘录

NFLX: Bullish EPS Setup - Raising Revenues on Historically Low Valuation

Equity Research

Earnings Revised — July 1, 2026

Media & Entertainment

Netflix, Inc.

Bullish EPS Setup - Raising Revenues on Historically Low Equal Weight

Valuation Price Target: $105.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg

We're tactically bullish into the print. NFLX has derated to near our Bear Case + recent EPS 2026 3.63 3.60 0.9%

2Qs have come w/ raises. Mgmt has incentive to project confidence in engagement/churn. EPS 2027 4.01 3.87 3.5%

To upgrade, we'd like to see AI savings redeployed into big time sports. Rev. (MM) 2026 51.61B 51.44B 0.3%

Rev. (MM) 2027 58.14B 57.48B 1.1%

Weak sentiment. NFLX has the feel of a fallen angel. Its fwd P/E is -2 SDs below the '23-

current avg. Investors are worried about engagement slowing as a harbinger of longer- Ticker NFLX

term rev growth slowing too, which ostensibly justifies the derating. And, the brightest Upside/(Downside) to Target 41.5%

spots in Media YTD have been the box office (CNK +37%, IMAX +9%), studios (LION

Price (07/01/2026) $74.19+64%) and live (LYV +29%; SPX +10% YTD). While cheap isn't a thesis, it certainly makes

us more interested in the bull/bear EPS setup. 52 Week Range $70.86 - 133.88

Market Cap (MM) $318,901

Past performance. We consider NFLX to be one of the best management teams in our Enterprise Value (MM) $326,327

coverage, and they're not likely taking the share pressures lightly. Prior sell-offs occurred Average Daily Value (MM) $3,054

in '18-'19 (FCF debates) and 1H'22 (sub growth slowing), and each time mgmt was Dividend Yield 0.0%

able to reposition the company + recapture the narrative. While past performance is no

predictor of future actions, to us the setup into 2Q'26 EPS feels comparable.