St James's Place PLC "1H26 preview and key debates" (Buy) Ahmed

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St James's Place PLC "1H26 preview and key debates" (Buy) Ahmed

Flow and AUM expectations

1H26: We are below consensus expectations on net and gross flows over 2Q26 driven

by our lower gross flow expectations. We expect growth of c.2%, in line with the latest

IA data for May (see here) and only marginally better than 1Q26 (see here). Markets,

however, are a significant tailwind adding c.10% of investment returns. As such, we are

9% ahead of Visible Alpha consensus FUM expectations.

Figure 3: UBSe 2Q26 flow expectations versus Visible Alpha

consensus

ow expec

UBSe 2Q2 6 fl

tati

ons versus Vis ible Alpha con

sensus

Source: UBS estimates, Visible Alpha

Longer term expectations:

Gross flows - We expect gross flow growth to fall to zero from 2027 onwards. This is

acceleration of our "AI disruption" scenario, where we previously assumed the

reduction to zero by 2030. As such, we believe, we have already assume some

potential disruption from AI within our base case - see our scenario analysis here.

Figure 4: UBS gross flow expectations for SJP 2025-30E We expect gross flow growth to

moderate towards flat by 2027E

e expectprev th tat iously). 0EW

2030E (2030E previously).

27E ( expec 5-3

flow by We expect the reduction in gross 20 ross 202

flat

ards flows to continue, with net flows

e tow io P turning negative by 2030.

ns f

derat UBS g SJ

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We expect this effect to be driven by

owth or

We AI-related disruption/competition as low ross pect ex gr g e reduction in gros f s flows to continue, with discussed in our note here.

Source:UBS estimates, company data

Outflows – We expect outflows to remain close SJP's target level, with retention levels

in line with the target level of c.95%. We do not model greater outflows from AI-related

risks in our base case.