Tactical Goodie Bag (Q3-Summer Catalysts)

研报英文原文证据摘录

Tactical Goodie Bag (Q3-Summer Catalysts)

Biotechnology - Immunology

Tactical Goodie Bag (Q3-Summer Catalysts) July 1, 2026

Summarizing our opinions on Q3 catalysts, with limited changes vs prior reports. Join

us for a webcast today 11 am ET to quickly run through each of these (1-2 min per

item). In order of hotness of topic:

1. CARDIO-TTRansform. Investors continue to be bullish combo stat sig. Wolfe:

positive ALNY (July-Aug-ish). See our statistical analysis (where we believe achen@wolferesearch.comAndy Chen, PhD CFA

bullishness is overdone due to healthier patients, SGLT2 background) and stock 646-582-9370

scenarios View Andy’s Research

View Comp Table

2. Sionna. Early consensus that VRTX trades down on 15-20 sweat. Wolfe: positive

Brandon Frith

VRTX into the summer, earnings and early next year. See our deepdive and replay bfrith@wolferesearch.com

where we continue to be skeptical of Sionna dosing 646-582-9372

3. Lp(a). More eyes on the readout, investors finding more ways to argue in favor of

success (bar HR < 0.8 stat sig). Wolfe: there likely is some lingering value of Lp(a) in

IONS. See our deepdive and replay where we are bullish

4. argenx DM. Buyside view appears to skew "worse than a coinflip", but now

increasingly arguing in favor of "IMNM size is similar to MG!" causing significant stock

strength. Wolfe: no clear recommendation on ARGX

5. Arrowhead SHTG. Clear buyside skew in favor of Arrowhead, visible in yesterday's

trading. Wolfe: if only we know the timing better, this would be a negative IONS. See

our statistical analysis (where we believe Arrowhead will likely match or beat) and

replay

6. Moonlake PsA Ph3. No clear buyside bar, but we have not spoken to a single bear in

the last 6 months.