Tingyi (322 HK) Upgrade to Buy: Cost reduction plus outstanding shareholder returns

研报英文原文证据摘录

Tingyi (322 HK) Upgrade to Buy: Cost reduction plus outstanding shareholder returns

K PRICE (HKD)

data (Exhibit 1) indicates strong share price upside when Tingyi’s dividend yield

ranges from 9% to 11%. Moreover, the stock is trading at 11x 2026e forward PE, with 15.00

a 9.2% net profit CAGR in 2026-28. Overall, the valuation looks attractive. 12.00

9.00

Earnings estimate changes: Our revenue estimates remain unchanged for 2026-28. 07/25 12/25 06/26

Target price: 12.00 High: 13.53 Low: 9.52 Current: 9.78

We raise our gross margin by 0.1ppt, 0.4ppt, and 0.8ppt over the period, respectively,

given the easing of the conflict in the Middle East. We raise our estimated selling Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC Qianhai Securities estimates

expense ratios by 0.2ppt in 2026, 0.3ppt in 2027, and 0.4ppt in 2028, as we believe

keener beverage competition will boost its selling expense ratios over this period; Darron Xue* (Reg. No. S1700518110002)

however, Tingyi will not join in a price war. As a result, we lower our net profit estimate Analyst, A-share Food & Beverage and Pulp & Paper

HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited

by 1.7% in 2026, but raise our net profit estimates by 1.7% in 2027, and 4.1% in 2028. darron.xue@hsbcqh.com.cn

+86 755 8898 3407

Upgrade to Buy (from Hold); raise target price to HKD12.00 (from HKD11.00): We

Kathy Song* (Reg. No. S1700517120001)

continue to use a PE multiple to value the stock, and roll over the valuation base year to Head of A-share Consumer Research

2027 (from 2026). We expect a 2024-28 net profit CAGR of 9% (previously 8%), below HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited

kathy.l.h.song@hsbcqh.com.cn

the historical average of 11% over 2017-24. We use a 12x 2027e target PE +86 21 5066 2007

(9%/11%×15x=12x, previously 12x 2026e target PE), 0.5 SD below the historical