A steady quarter ahead

研报英文原文证据摘录

A steady quarter ahead

Equity Research - 6 July 2026 19:49 CEST

Reason: Preview of resultsAxfood

• Q2 preview: EBIT of SEK 1,006m (+5% y-o-y)

• Margin support from favourable consumer behaviour

• Recent weakness offers attractive entry point Retail

Q2'26 preview Estimate changes (%)

Considering the defensive qualities of food retail, Q2'26 was set for 2026e 2027e 2028e

excitement. On 1 April, food VAT was cut from 12% to 6% in an attempt Sales -0.1 -0.5 -0.5

to enhance consumer demand. First it seemed like this move had limited EBIT -0.9 -0.4 -0.5

impact as the market grew by a disappointing 2% in April. However, the EPS -1.2 -0.5 -0.6

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

strong 7% growth in volume/mix (calendar adjusted) in May suggests a

clear shift in consumer behaviour. Combined with favourable weather and AXFO-SE/AXFO SS

the World Cup in June, we estimate total market growth of 3.5% in Q2. For Share price (SEK) 3/7/2026 262.40

Axfood, we forecast 3.0% retail sales growth (o/w 2.0% like-for-like). We Target price 335.00

note, however, that food price deflation and higher fuel costs (we calculate

a SEK 20m headwind) might offset some of the tailwinds. Overall, we

forecast adj. EBIT of SEK 1,006m (+5% y-o-y or +3% excl. City Gross). MCap (SEKm) 56,943

MCap (EURm) 5,163

Outlook: a record year ahead No. of shares (m) 216.8

As we expected, the reduced VAT rate seems to have had a clear Free float (%) 48.5

impact on consumer behaviour (i.e. positive volume/mix), which in turn is Av. daily volume (k) 563

supportive of gross margins. Furthermore, we model a FY'26e ~SEK 100m

EBIT adj. improvement in City Gross. On the other hand, higher fuel costs

Next event Q2 report 15 July 2026and food price deflation could act as a short-term headwind, although we