MEOH: Iran tensions easing; lowering PT to $65

研报英文原文证据摘录

MEOH: Iran tensions easing; lowering PT to $65

e-Iran war levels. We note that EPS, Adj Basic Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

our current methanol price forecast for 2027 is $403/MT, which is 17% 2025 1.30A 0.97A 0.06A (0.14)A

higher than our 2027 forecast of $343/MT in February 2026. 2026 0.30A 4.12E 3.10E 2.34E

Prev. 4.23E 2.58E 2.06E

Focused on debt reduction with room for share buybacks. Management EBITDA, Adj

previously indicated that their priority for excess cash is to repay the Term 2025 248.0A 183.0A 191.0A 186.0A 2026 220.0A 597.0E 478.0E 397.0E

Loan A balance of $289 million (March 31, 2026). We expect the loan to Prev. 427.0E 373.0E

be fully repaid in Q2/26, and we expect excess cash will be allocated to

repaying most of the $700 million debt maturing in October 2027 and some AllPricedvaluesas ofin priorUSD unlesstradingotherwiseday's marketnoted.close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

capital will be allocated to share buybacks.

Idling Trinidad and Tobago operations. Methanex recently announced

that it is indefinitely idling its Titan facility (860,000 MT/year capacity) in

Trinidad and Tobago, which should not be a surprise to the market, as the

company was unable to secure a natural gas contract before the current

agreement expires in Q3/26. Management highlighted that the facility is

not currently contributing to Adjusted EBITDA or Free Cash Flow.

Increasing estimates, but lowering PT to $65 from ($70). We are

increasing our 2026 and 2027 EBITDA forecast to $1,692 and $1,504

million, respectively (from $1,618 million and $1,488 million, respectively)

to reflect Methanex's non-discounted reference prices, CMA's updated

methanol price forecast, and the idling of the Titan facility. We continue

to expect the New Zealand operations to be idled at the end of 2026.