More desperate for memory

研报英文原文证据摘录

More desperate for memory

Macquarie Equity Research SK Hynix

Memory prices rising faster than expected in 2H26

• Memory inventory nearly depleted at hyper-scalers. We estimate that the price of

64GB DDR5 server DIMM was up 50% QoQ to US$1,300 in 2Q26. While DRAM contract

price jumped 5 times in the last one year, hyperscalers' memory inventory continued to

dwindle to a dangerous level. It is unusual to see inventory levels and memory prices go in

an opposite direction for such a long time. Without bit supply loosening, the same 64GB

server DIMM price is likely to advance towards US$2,000 level by this year-end. Considering

ECC (error-correction code) dies in this module, this should translate into US$3.1 per Gbit

or US$25 per GB, 70% higher than 2026 HBM price.

• LPDDR5 price is catching up. The price gap between mainstream server DIMM and mobile

DRAM (LPDDR) has widened to 30% in terms of US$/Gbit in 2Q26. We expect smartphone

OEMs to accept a much higher LPDDR5 price in 2H26, as DRAM price is unlikely to fall in the

next 3 years as most OEMs have decided to raise new smartphone prices.

• NAND price is spiralling. While NAND's operating margin is now closer to DRAM's, both

around 80% in 2Q26, SK Hynix is still reluctant to allocate new cleanroom space to

NAND. Its bigger rival, Samsung Electronics, also reprioritises DRAM over NAND for wafer

capacity allocation. This is because 12" NAND wafer generates US$40-50,000 versus 12"

DRAM wafer's US$80,000 based on the current price. Moreover, while DRAM's scaling has

significantly slowed, NAND can increase chip density by raising layer count. On the other

hand, NAND's relatively cheap pricing is still an attractive option for KV cache offloading. In