Short Cycle Indicator "June-26: Indicator holds up at 1.06x with solid..."

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Short Cycle Indicator "June-26: Indicator holds up at 1.06x with solid..."

Global Research

2 July 2026ab

Short Cycle Indicator Equities

Europe including UKJune-26: Indicator holds up at 1.06x with solid

orders and less stocking, pointing to 4% short- Industrial

cycle growth into year-end Andre KukhninAnalyst

andre.kukhnin@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 2162

Bottom line: UBS Short Cycle Indicator flat MoM at 1.06x Dini Magoon

Analyst

Overall, the Short Cycle Indicator has remained stable at 1.06x in June. All regions were dini.magoon@ubs.com

roughly flat MoM, with North America and China reporting +0.01x MoM while Europe +44-20-7567 4037

and Asia ex-China reported -0.01x. While we continue to see some risk from stocking up

Ed Hussey

during the US-Iran conflict as well as from input cost inflation resultant from higher

energy prices, we now see increasing scope for sentiment improvement given the edward.hussey@ubs.com

progress in resolution. We continue to focus on the value and self-help angles within the +44-20-7568 3946

cyclical space and continue to favour Ind Automation over generic General Industrial

Bruno Gjani

exposures - with Siemens, Renishaw, Volvo and Andritz as top ideas. Our top secular

growth at reasonable price ideas are Schneider, Metso and Weir. In the quality growth bruno.gjani@ubs.com

segment, we favour KONE, GEA and Fluidra (all Buy rated). Within the short-cycle space, +44-20-7901 5133

we have been cautious on Sandvik (although tungsten prices continue to cause a

Sven Weier

disconnect with fundamentals) and Atlas Copco (both Sell rated).

sven.weier@ubs.com

What does the current indicator imply? +49-69-1369 8278

The Short Cycle Indicator is a 6-month lead indicator for short-cycle organic revenue Christopher Leonard

growth.