Georg Fischer "Challenging end markets- muted H1 26E ahead but improvements..."

研报英文原文证据摘录

Georg Fischer "Challenging end markets- muted H1 26E ahead but improvements..."

ab water infrastructure support functions piping systems we

12/27E 2.83 2.99

estimate. UBS forecasts semi equipment capex to grow from $199bn in 2025 towards

12/28E 3.08 3.40

$362bn by 2028E implying a CAGR of c20-25%. This should result in GF`s semi sales

prospects of cCHF300m in 2028E adding up to CHF20-30m (up to 10% of total EBIT) Joern Iffert, CFA

incremental EBIT for GF over the next 2-3 years supporting group earnings momentum Analyst

by some 2-3% y/y (ceteris paribus). joern.iffert@ubs.com

+41-44-239 88 00

View on consensus and investor sentiment Sebastian Vogel, CFA

We think muted H1 26E results triggering mild downside rather than upside risk to Analyst

sebastian.vogel@ubs.com

consensus could mark the bottom of investor sentiment during 2026. We expect some

+41-44 239 90 45

sentiment support during H2 26E. Going into H2 26E, improved earnings momentum

supported by higher margin semiconductor and room for construction end market Marti Queral Ferre, CFA

improvements in 2027-28E (potentially lower yield curve) could support investor Analyst

marti.queral-ferre@ubs.com

sentiment again. For 2026E, we are forecasting +1.8% organic sales (cons. +1.9%) with

+41-44-236 9246

a core EBIT of CHF336m (cons. CHF345m) resulting in a margin of 10.6% (cons. 10.6%-

post recent negative revisions). Though organic sales forecasts might have some upside

risk due to the pass through of higher raw material costs, we see mild downside risk to

consensus earnings.

Valuation: DCF based PT of CHF44

The stock trades on 2026E c16x PE (PMI stocks Bossard/SFS at 18-19x).

Highlights (CHFm) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 4,026 4,825 2,999 3,163 3,281 3,393 3,514 3,639