Brazilian Utilities "June 2026 - Looking back and what's next" Ajeje

研报英文原文证据摘录

Brazilian Utilities "June 2026 - Looking back and what's next" Ajeje

Global Research

2 July 2026ab

Brazilian Utilities Equities

AmericasJune 2026 - Looking back and what's next

Utilities

Giuliano Ajeje

June 2026 - Capacity de-risked, flexibility repriced Analyst

June changed the conversation in Brazilian utilities. The sector is no longer giuliano.ajeje@ubs.com

debating whether Brazil needs capacity, flexibility and grid investment. It does. The +55-11-2767 6371

investable question is now who gets paid, who funds the bill, and which balance Henrique Simoes

sheets can move before regulation catches up. The LRCAP overhang largely cleared Associate Analyst

in favor of continuity. The TCU preserved the auction results despite keeping the henrique.simoes@ubs.com

alleged overpricing review alive, reversing the suspension risk that had dominated +55-11-2767 6308

May (link). That matters. Thermal beneficiaries are de-risked near term - Eneva Julia Ongarato

stands out on headline exposure - while the incremental capacity charge of roughly Associate Analyst

R$2.3bn from Apr-26 to Apr-27 moves into consumer tariffs. The disqualification of julia.ongarato@ubs.com

nine EPP thermal projects, totaling around 1.7 GW, also tightened the message: +55-11-2767 6694

contracted capacity may survive scrutiny, but not every marginal project will (link).

J&F’s failed late qualification reinforces the same point. The state wants reliability,

but within a gatekeeping framework that is becoming more selective.

Storage was the bigger structural shift. Aneel’s BESS framework removed double

grid tariffing for assets under full ONS dispatch, while the MME split the first storage

LRCAP into two December auctions - one with local-content requirements, one open