MLTX PsA data likely to be in-line, but delayed positive on the stock

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MLTX PsA data likely to be in-line, but delayed positive on the stock

Biotechnology - Immunology

Immunology - Market Overweight

MOONLAKE IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS (MLTX) June 30, 2026

MLTX PsA data likely to be in-line, but delayed positive on Rating:

the stock Outperform

Price:

$19.91

The Wolfe Byte Price Target:

We believe Moonlake PsA Ph3 absolute will look similar to Bimzelx (while detailed $24

% Upside:data in the future will likely show high placebo). While this data may not be strong, 20.5%

we believe stock reaction will be a delayed positive.

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Summary. Sonelokimab Ph2 Wk12 ARC50 and PASI90 showed deltas falling short Company Information

by ~10% against Bimzelx Wk12 Ph2 data. Despite efficacy reaching 46% (ACR50) 52-Week Range $6 - $62

and 77% (PASI90) in Ph2, we predict Ph3 ACR50 base case of 44% absolute ACR50 Market Cap. (M) $1,466

with induction (WI) and 36% absolute without induction (NI), with placebo at 16%. Shares Out. (MM) 73.6 Avg. Value Traded (MM) $33.50

Co has managed expectation on placebo and will only communicate absolute on SI% of Float 8.4%

topline, which likely will be similar to Bimzelx. That said, we believe the data Dividend Yield 0.0%

would continue to lift the stock up further (details on stock behavior below) Price Performance

YTD LTMDetailed methods. The main concern of the Ph2 data was placebo response, which (58)% MLTX 27%

appears to be elevated by +10pp on ACR20 50 70 PASI90 compared to PsA Ph3 trial SPX (3)% 16%

averages at Wk12. PASI90 placebo trends tend to be more consistent across trials

(less subjective than ACR), and suggests that the entire Moonlake Ph2 dataset was 60

50likely overstated (both placebo and drug). Patient criteria and baseline characteristics