Global Memory Tech: Weekly theme: Meta/CXMT/Korea risks, Japan trip takeaways, Samsung 2Q OP

研报英文原文证据摘录

Global Memory Tech: Weekly theme: Meta/CXMT/Korea risks, Japan trip takeaways, Samsung 2Q OP

ruction plan

Some investors said the Korea government-led new memory fab cluster construction

spending W800tn in the country’s southwestern region (e.g., Kwangju) signals a peak of Exhibit 1: DDR5 stable, DDR4 rebounded

for four consecutive weeks; NAND flat ormemory cycle. However, we do not expect meaningful chip production volumes by 2033

slightly down(see report). It is a long-term plan after focusing on Youngin/Pyeongtaek fab cluster

Spot prices – DRAM and NAND

expansion (2026-35). Overall, we don’t see yet any capex-driven memory cycle peak,

given strong/diversified enterprise chip demand (HBM, SOCAMM, eSSD, etc.). US$ Current WoW QoQ YoY

DRAM spot

What we learned from our Japan trip 16Gb DDR5 46.8 0% 27% 671%

16Gb DDR4 75.4 5% 3% 783%

We met Japan investors and NAND supply chain companies this week. The investors 8Gb DDR4 36.3 1% 8% 616%

were broadly bullish on memory but frequently asked potential downturn given currently 4Gb DDR4 11.9 6% 69% 384%

strong industry growth. In fact, corporate management provided more bullish guidance, NAND spot

suggesting (1) upbeat 2Q ASP (particularly NAND), (2) still rising trend of 3Q/4Q ASP vs 1Tb wafer 24.4 0% -10% 381%

512Gb wafer 19.9 -1% -10% 641%

2Q, (3) 2027 shortage (DRAM, NAND), (4) rising LTA (but still volume-centric), (5) 256Gb wafer 10.2 0% -7% 578%

disciplined capex and chip production volume (mainly for Japan NAND). Source: DRAMeXchange

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Samsung’s 2Q preliminary OP AI: Artificial intelligence

Samsung Electronics’ 2Q preliminary OP (due 7 July) is likely to be slightly lower than the ASP: Average selling price

bullish consensus due to special bonus (including 1Q) and smartphone margin squeeze.