Increasing Annual EPS 1-2% Following Ramsdens Acquisition Announcement; Purchase Multiple Cheap Vs. FCFS Stock

研报英文原文证据摘录

Increasing Annual EPS 1-2% Following Ramsdens Acquisition Announcement; Purchase Multiple Cheap Vs. FCFS Stock

Investment Thesis

We rate FCFS shares Neutral. Valuation has climbed back close to historical levels, driven by FirstCash's pawn business reporting

consistent top-line growth and expanding margins. Macro weakness amongst the subprime consumer is aiding demand for both

pawn loans and used goods sold at FirstCash's retail stores. Inflation helps pawn loan growth (collateral values increase), retailSPECIALTY sales margins and jewelry scrappage sales. Despite serving the lowest-credit-tier in our coverage, FirstCash has little credit risk.

Upcoming Catalysts Price Performance

FirstCash is a relatively stable business with earnings the key catalyst. Key drivers $240FINANCE

include counter-cyclical economic trends, lack of subprime financing competition, $220

inflation and gold prices, opportunities to buy or build new pawn stores, Latin America $200

currency conversion, and share repurchases. $180

$160EQUITY

Base Case Assumptions $140 $120

■ U.S. pawn fee growth inline with guidance of mid-teens growth for 2026. With new $100

store expansion, revenue growth reversion should lap over the course of the year. Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 ■ LatAm growth accelerating in Mexico.

FCFSRESEARCH ■ LTO EBITDA margins of 15%, with credit costs stable vs. 2025. S&P 500 (rebased)

Source: FactSet

Upside Scenario Company Description

■ "Hard landing" would help drive even more demand for pawn loans. FirstCash is the largest international

■ More new store openings than anticipated, either de novo or by acquisition. operator of pawn stores with >1,100