EvrISI June US SAAR - 16.5….do I hear a 17MM before Dec??

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EvrISI June US SAAR - 16.5….do I hear a 17MM before Dec??

Global Automotive

July 02, 2026

Chris McNally EvrISI June US SAAR - 16.5….do I hear a 17MM before Dec??

+44 207 847 3502 ◼ PM Summary – June’s 16.5MM SAAR comes in at the very high end

chris.mcnally@evercoreisi.com

of previewed 16.3-16.5MM and in line with JDP (+8% YoY; +3% MoM

John Saager, CFA

646-895-1735 vs May’s ~16.1MM; Q2 a solid 16.2MM or in line with “trend”) as the

John.Saager@evercoreISI.com recent “16MMs” now see its first 16.5MM print in 14 months. If you

Alex Kulicki are still bearish SAAR…. you likely don’t understand US New buyers

646-225-6053

= the K-economy and we set up a call. The extremely steady low/mid alex.kulicki@evercoreisi.com

Global Autos Team Contact: 13MMs Q2 retail is yet another sign of the continued recovery as

EvrISI_Autos@evercoreisi.com various macro-related Traffic Light fears have turned GREEN with 1)

Oil collapsing to <$70; 2) possibility of YE rate cut signaling & 3) lack

of idiosyncratic stumbles (Iran resolution). We forecast ’26 SAAR’

(16.1-16.2MM) increasing into a normalized ’27 (16.5-17MM) on the

back of just a hint of increased incentives and the continued alleviation

of those macro concerns (primarily rates/oil). The 3m/Q2 avg is now

16.2, nearly in line with our 16.2MM FY forecast, with consensus yet to

budge at 15.9MM. 2H ++ NA production revisions should spark the

Auto Seasonal Trade in stocks from late summer into YE.

◼ Retail SAAR of ~13.6MM (13.4MM 3-month) continues the positive

trend and could indicate upward momentum towards low/mid

16MMs trend on normalized 2.8-2.9MM fleet. Oscar’s Dealer Survey

declined through the month towards 51 (51+ likely the new “16MM+”)

◼ June Quick SAAR Stats – SAAR units were particularly impressive as