Solvay 2Q26 Preview - small refraction points, near-term still lacks light

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Solvay 2Q26 Preview - small refraction points, near-term still lacks light

EUROPE | Chemicals

Solvay EquityJuneResearch29, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGESolvay 2Q26 Preview - small refraction points,

RATING UNDERPERFORMnear-term still lacks light

PRICE €26.98^

We remain -3% behind EBITDA consensus over the next three years and

raise our PT to €20/share, maintaining UNDERPERFORM. Operational PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €20.00 (€18.00) | -26%

challenges persist with demand uncertainty and limited near-term pricing 52W HIGH-LOW €30.56 - €23.54

support. While risks remain, modest sentiment positives (patent dispute, FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 63.1% | 11.33

rare earth policy) could support upside if realised, though visibility remains MARKET CAP €2.8B | $3.2B

limited. Solvay reports Q2 results on 29 July. TICKER SOLB BB ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Operationally, we see little change sequentially, with end-market conditions remaining

subdued and volume trends still soft across the portfolio. Dynamics within soda ash remain

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

broadly unchanged, with no meaningful relief from global supply/demand imbalances and

2026 2027 2026 2027

limited pricing benefits given the largely contractual nature of the market and subdued spot

prices. We forecast FY26 EBITDA of €758mn, -4% vs VA consensus, vs guidance range REV NM NM -3% -3%

€770-850mn. EPS <1% +7% NM -6%

Strategically, could small positive news refract a bit more light onto the story? There are 2026 (€) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

indications of potential incremental support points, albeit with limited near-term financial EPS -- -- -- -- 2.42

impact. In rare earths, progress appears constructive with ongoing policy development still PREV 2.41