BMRN: Takeaways from our Fireside Chat w/ Alexander (CEO) & Greg (Head of R&D)

研报英文原文证据摘录

BMRN: Takeaways from our Fireside Chat w/ Alexander (CEO) & Greg (Head of R&D)

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN)

Equity Research

June 29, 2026

The Long View: BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.

Investment Thesis Risk/Reward - 12 Month View

1) Our NPV for BMRN's base business suggests to us that its most important

Upside : Downside

launches, Roctavian and Voxzogo, are not materially factored into the price. 160 9.22 : 1

2) We estimate BMRN will double its revenues and have margins approaching

40% over the next few years. 3) Voxzogo continues to outperform expectations 140 142 (+141%)

and looks to be on its way to being a $1.5-$2.0bn asset if it can continue to 120

expand indications.

104 (+76%)

50 (-15%)

2025 2026 +12 mo.

Base Case, Upside Scenario, Downside Scenario,

$104, +76% $142, +141% $50, -15%

DCF-based PT of $104 • Upside scenario PT of $142 • Downside scenario PT of $50

• The launches and peak sales of Voxzogo and • The FDA asks for additional long-term data on• Roctavian achieves risk-adj. $150m peak sales

Roctavian are better than expected in our base Roctavian to approve• Voxzogo achieves $1.1bn peak sales in ACH

case • The launches and peak sales of Roctavian and• Voxzogo risk-adj. ~$1.2Bn peak sales in other

• Growth of the base business continues steadily Voxzogo are materially slower and lower than short-stature disorders (hypochondroplasia,

into the outer years + Voxzogo expands expected Noonan)

indications • Growth of the base business stalls, and• We assume 15% cost cuts starting in '25

• BMRN's early pipeline candidates, including competition from biosimilars increases as• BMRN’s growing base business serves as a

PKU gene tx, show promising clinical data patents expire valuation floor with an NPV of $67

Sustainability Matters Catalysts